Author: Jason

Surfing the Sea of Uncertainty

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The world is a chaotic place. Plans provide a guide amidst the chaos. In reality though, it’s impossible to control for life’s uncertainties. Uncertainty is scary, at least for me. How do you overcome uncertainty? Through planning. Not just one plan. A Plan B is an absolute must. It’s also worth thinking about a Plan C.

For most of my life, I thought plans were necessary in order to accomplish anything. Not just rough guidelines, but the whole works. Tasks. Checkpoints. Deadlines. All crucial to ensure goals are achieved. Sometime over the past year though, I’ve come to believe that plans, while helpful, should at best serve as a guide, not followed verbatim. Why?

Life happens. Current actions certainly influence the likelihood of future circumstances, but the future is never a sure thing until it is the present. As much as I’d like to believe, it’s impossible to ensure everything will run according to plan (or plans).

I haven’t completely thrown out the usefulness of planning. I still do it all the time. I still believe it’s better to have a plan than no plan at all. One of my favorite bloggers wrote recently,

“We are not walking a path, but surfing a sea.” Leo Babauta

I completely agree. Plans help us navigate the sea of uncertainty. They provide a path, at best a sense of direction, to our goals; however, life has a habit of throwing us off our compass. It took me a long time to realize this. It took even longer to figure out how to overcome these unforeseen challenges.

Sachs vs. Easterly

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After reading The Bottom Billion, I really wanted to get a grasp on the spectrum of perspectives development economists have towards foreign assistance. To this end, I just finished reading two more books on economic development: Jeffrey Sach’s The End of Poverty and William Easterly’s The White Man’s Burden. At 350+ pages per book, both authors pack a lot of information. However, the crux of both authors’ arguments is essentially:

Sachs: Advocates for international development through an approach he calls Clinical Economics. Doctors diagnose patients to improve their wellbeing; Sachs argues international development professionals should similarly conduct a multi-pronged assessment of the conditions of undeveloped countries in order to prescribe and execute a comprehensive plan to promote economic development.

Easterly: Planners, folks who believe economic development can be solved through strategic planning and implementation, are not the solution to economic development. Believes the real solution to economic development comes from searchers – folks from the country in question – who learn through doing, in turn promoting economic development from within.

If simplified even further, Sachs advocates a planned-approach while Easterly believes in the power of a markets-based approach to economic development.

Both Sachs and Collier cite a huge problem if the development community relies on a market-based approach: the economies of the most undeveloped countries often don’t offer goods or services that the rest of the world is interested in trading with. Even if these countries have goods of interest, typically natural resources, a variety of issues, such as those cited by Collier, continues to hinder undeveloped countries from getting a foot hold on the first rung on the economic development ladder.

Both authors provide valid arguments; however, if I’d have to choose a camp, I’d have to side with Easterly. I’m not completely sold on believing that searchers and a market-based approach is the key to international development, but I do believe a more entrepreneurial-from-within approach is needed.

Ironically though, my experiences volunteering with Generation Enterprise has taught me that entrepreneurship already is happening everywhere in the undeveloped and developing worlds. Perhaps hustling or hawking might be a better descriptor, but nonetheless, what’s happing on the ground is entrepreneurship. If hustling is already happening, than it’s clear, at least in my opinion, that a complete market-based approach is likely not the final solution to promoting systemic change and widespread improvements in the economies of the undeveloped world.

Book Review: “The Bottom Billion” by Paul Collier

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In my quest to learn more about how aid has influenced global development, I recently finished reading Paul Collier’s, The Bottom Billion. Collier first looks at the reasons why the world’s poorest, which he calls the bottom billion, have not succeeded in climbing out of extreme poverty: conflict, resources, bad governance, and landlocked with bad neighbors. Collier then looks at the different tools he believes can be leveraged to eradicate extreme poverty: aid; military intervention; laws, statutes, and charters; and trade. Finally, he outlines how these four tools can address the challenges of each poverty trap.

Some points that particularly stuck with me:

  • By design, the international development community has been organized to use aid as the primary tool to combat global poverty.

The power of international trade as a tool towards economic growth (and consequently, away from extreme poverty) has been demonstrated throughout the world. Of course, not all countries have benefited from globalization. The development community needs to change in order to complement and collaborate with the private sector. Structurally, how can this be done?

  • Until a large enough wage gap exists between Developing Asia, it’ll take decades before the poorest countries can begin to compete globally in international trade.

Even if large wage gaps existed in Developing Asia, other aspects such as a lack of economies of agglomeration and poor infrastructure will ensure that it’ll likely take even more years before countries in the bottom billion can be attractive alternatives for manufacturing, or for commerce and trade. Aside from policies and charters, which Collier prescribes, what else can be done NOW to better incorporate these countries into global trade?

Goal Reviews: Q1 ’12

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It’s been only 72 hours or so since I’ve been back in DC. What an amazing weekend! So great to catch up with so many peeps, and to meet a few new folks as well! This chapter of my life has just begun, and it’s already gotten off to a great start.

As I consider what I’ll be doing during my period of “funemployment” back in DC, I think now would be a great time to take a look at how I’m stacking up to my goals for the year:

  • Get into graduate school. Mission Accomplished. Got into both schools I had applied to, but unfortunately received no financial aid from either school. I have until May 1st to decide, and am really in limbo with this decision at the moment. I still have a boatload of undergraduate student loans to pay off. Even if I deferred till Fall 2013, I’d be looking at cumulative undergrad/grad school loans in the six figures. Not too interested in having that hanging over my head for the next decade of my life.
  • Get published in an academic journal. I don’t even have a topic in mind. Also, as this relates to grad school, if I decide not to attend, this goal is also longshot.
  • Pass the TOCFL Master or HSK Level 5 (Advanced). The HSK is offered monthly, and I’m taking the HSK Level 4 (Intermediate with Honors) next month. I’ve always struggled to maintain my language goals, and I figured it might be better to take baby steps in order to achieve a much larger goal. To this end, I’m registered to take the HSK Level 4 (Intermediate with Honors) next month. My performance on that test will help me determine what I’ll need to focus on in preparation for HSK Level 5. Ultimately, my goal is to obtain some Chinese language certification by year-end.
  • Get a policy or IR-related job or internship, preferably in DC. Still working on this, though given my current situation I’m more open-minded to positions in other fields (i.e. consulting).
  • Learn to code. Completed the first few lessons of Code Academy, but stopped during the Chinese New Year break. I think I need to find a more tangible goal, such as certification, to keep me motivated on this one.
  • Run a half-marathon. Haven’t registered for one, nor have I gotten back into the running habit since my return. Currently, I’m thinking a better alternative would be to start small and build up: First run a 5k, then 10k, 15k, and ideally a half-marathon by year-end.
  • Blog at least once a week. Fail. Didn’t post anything last week, though had two posts the week prior. Time to get back on the train!

And that’s that. Going through this list has reminded me of what I should be focusing on. Hopefully I’ll have made more progress on all fronts by the end of Q2. Wish me luck!